The cigarette tax bill was front and center in today’s capitol coverage.  If you missed it, scroll down for our previous two posts.

At this writing, we’re hearing that HB 1204 will run in House Rules committee on Wednesday, where it is certain to pass with at least 8 votes.  Nine of the committee members are co-sponsors on the bill.

That means that a House vote could come as early as Thursday, though it doesn’t have to.  With that looming vote, capitol blogger Jason Tolbert reports that there are nine Republican House members who could decide whether or not the bill earns a 75-member supermajority needed to pass.

Tolbert summarizes his conversations with the Republican lawmakers and identifies them as Reps. Rick Green, Tim Summers, Robert Dale, Les “Skip” Carnine, Roy Ragland, Bill Sample, Mary Lou Slinkard, Jonathan Barnett and Jon Woods.

The Governor and House Speaker will have to pick off at least six of these nine votes and here’s why.  Three Democratic members have expressed their intention to vote no to the bill’s lead sponsor, Rep. Gregg Reep.

That leaves 68 Democrats and one Green Party member in support of the bill – 69 total. 

Rep. Rick Green is a co-sponsor of the bill and will certainly count for one of the six votes needed.

To get to 75, HB 1204’s supporters will need five more votes to get past the supermajority threshold.  Don’t be surprised to see a vote tried before the week is over to get a sense for where the actual vote count sits.  With 67 votes, a bill’s prior vote can be expunged – meaning the first vote is discarded and the bill can be tried again.