What will happen Wednesday afternoon in the Joint State Agencies & Governmental Affairs committee that will bring House and Senate members together to refer up to 3 proposed constitutional amendments?

Good guess, according to scuttlebutt in the capitol corridors.

It will be a bumpy road by all accounts, but there are 5 measures likely to get strong consideration at tomorrow’s meeting or a subsequent one.  Ten proposals have made an initial round of cuts to be considered.  Every regular session, the General Assembly is allowed to refer up to 3 proposed constitutional amendments for voter consideration.

Here are the 5 proposals with decent odds on passage as determined by our best handicapping abilities:

SJR 3 - Steve Faris (D- Malvern)
Odds are 1:1 that this measure gets pushed through.  SJR 3 provides for the constitutional right to hunt, fish, trap and harvest wildlife in Arkansas.  Faris has lobbied it hard and since he is the chairman of the joint committee tomorrow, it will be hard for him to not recognize himself in order to put the resolution before the committee.  If the committee bucks Faris on the vote, they’ll have to deal with his chairmanship for the remaining measures.  Still, there is some sentiment that this proposal is superfluous and unnecessary, and that the committee – with only 3 referrals – would be better served to tackle meatier, less populist, issues.

HJR 1007 - Rep. Robbie Wills (D- Conway)
Odds are 1:1 that this measure makes it for referral.  HJR 1007 would alter Amendment 82, the superproject amendment.  Right now, a threshold of $500 million in capital investment and 500 new jobs must be met to pursue bonds for superprojects.  It has not been tapped since its passage several years ago, and many advocates say the state could better compete for smaller projects with this economic development tool.

It is a consensus bill, even though there is some mention that the language could be less open-ended.  However, look for this proposal to make the ballot cut. Speaker Wills has been guiding his chamber with a strong, but gentle hand this session.  He returns for the annual session in his leadership post and that fact will carry weight with the committee vote.

HJR 1003 – Rep. Bruce Maloch (D-Magnolia)
Odds are 2:1 that this proposal makes it out of committee.  Last year, you may remember headlines that explained how student loans and home loans offered through state agencies were having difficulty being sold in the open markets.  HJR 1003 would remove the constitutional limit on interest rates on bonds issued by or loans made by or to governmental units.  The following two proposals are the reason that odds aren’t better on this proposal.

SJR 6 – Sen. Shane Broadway (D-Bryant)
Odds are 3:1 that this amendment proposal passes committee muster.  It incorporates Rep. Bruce Maloch’s proposal into Broadway’s original bill.  It would accomplish Maloch’s intentions and also allow for bonds to finance energy efficiency projects.  The savings from the energy improvements could be considered a revenue stream for the payback on the bonds.

The only reason we push the odds of approval on this one is because it is effectively trying to appease a larger constituency by solving two problems at once.  Committee members may prefer to do less and push Maloch’s bill through.

HJR 1004 – Rep. Eddie Cheatham (D-Crossett)
Odds are 5:1 for passage.  This bill is likely to be considered second by the committee on Wednesday, but it’s a longer shot to pass.  It accomplishes the same goals as Maloch’s bill but expands it to include businesses that finance like car dealers and furniture sellers.  Despite the small business appeal, it will face challenges from consumer interest groups opposed to the idea.

Those are our picks, but mind you, the last time we went to Oaklawn we lost money in 7 straight races.  Not even a horse in the show column!  And our Final Four bracket… let’s don’t even go there.  It’s hopeless.