Talk Business - Political Buzz

THE POLITICAL BUZZ
Breaking political news from around Arkansas
Editor: Roby Brock | roby@talkbusiness.net

Monday, March 15, 2010 - 8:01:05 AM

ARKANSAS ELECTION LINE: U.S. SENATE

Welcome to the first installment of The Arkansas Election Line, a collaboration between Talk Business, The Tolbert Report and Blake's Think Tank. Here's a refresher on our project, which we hope you will find worthy of debate.

Today, Jason Tolbert, Blake Rutherford and I examine the U.S. Senate race, in which 3 Democrats and 8 Republicans are vying for the seat currently held by Sen. Blanche Lincoln.

Our consensus rating is that the U.S. Senate race in Arkansas "Leans Republican" today.

In the GOP U.S. Senate primary, our view is that the nomination "Leans John Boozman."

In the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, we currently rate the race as "Leans Blanche Lincoln."

You can view a spreadsheet that we'll be updating as we add races at this link.

All of these assessments are where we collectively view the race today. Each of us will offer our own independent analysis of these ratings and from time-to-time you'll see us dissent with the consensus view.

ROBY BROCK'S ANALYSIS:
I have been tracking this race through our Talk Business Quarterly Poll for more than nine months. The political atmosphere in Arkansas has been volatile for incumbents and Sen. Blanche Lincoln has been particularly vulnerable in large part due to her pivotal role in the grinding health care debate.

Lincoln's job approval has consistently trended below 50% for months. As I've noted in our most recent poll, independent voters are breaking closely to where baseline Republican voter attitudes stand. This is a big part of the recipe for a GOP takeaway in November if conditions hold.

Our consensus is that Cong. John Boozman is the primary frontrunner to win the Republican nomination. He brings the most name ID to the race, a proven fundraising record, and has a near-decade of ballot appearances on his resume in the 3rd District, where nearly 50% of the GOP primary turnout will unfold.

State Sen. Gilbert Baker will give Boozman a strong challenge for the nomination based on his money raised (more than $700,000). However, the demographics of the 3rd District - in particular an expected large turnout for Boozman's opening House seat - will skew the results for that region of the state.

On the Democratic side, incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln still has advantages over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, but they are advantages that Halter could erase. Currently, Lincoln has more money, a deeper campaign organization, and more widespread name ID than Halter among Democratic primary voters. However, Halter's lack of universal name recognition is allowing him to define himself to primary voters (which we're seeing in his TV ads).

Lincoln has a tougher juggling act of re-defining herself to voters who have hardened in their description of her job performance. She is attempting to separate herself from the Washington, D.C. establishment, a tricky juggling act for a two-term incumbent and former member of Congress. Political analyst John Brummett and I discussed the Senate race in this interview on Friday.

Also, Lincoln has yet to counter any of Halter's positive messaging. Conversely, union groups started running negative ads toward Lincoln late last week and we'll watch to see how all of this media mix may change the dynamic of the Democratic primary.

Your thoughts are welcome. Feel free to share with me privately at roby@talkbusiness.net.

RECOMMENDED READING:
Jason Tolbert with The Tolbert Report - U.S. Senate race
Blake Rutherford of Blake's Think Tank - U.S. Senate race

TOMORROW'S ANALYSIS: 1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

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Sunday, March 14, 2010 - 10:43:47 PM

MARCH MADNESS HITS THE 2nd DISTRICT RACE

Well, David Boling's debate challenge in the 2nd Congressional District was tempting enough. You can bet we'll see a few formal debates and several loosely controlled forums where the candidates will line up for a side-by-side comparison.

Leave it to the upstart in the race - 27-year old Patrick Kennedy - to issue a bipartisan call for putting it all on the line.

In a Sunday night humorous Twitter post, Kennedy, a Democratic candidate for the 2nd District Congressional seat, put forth the ultimate March challenge:

I challenge @Boling4Congress @Joyce4Congress @robbiewills @votejohnadams @griffincongress & @swallace2010 to fill out brackets & make public

Of course the field of 64 (65 technically) teams was set on Sunday for the annual NCAA basketball tournament - March Madness of the non-political sort.

The big question is: Will our Congressional line-up take the political bait and pick the UAPB Golden Lions in a miraculous victory versus Duke (assuming UAPB makes it past Winthrop in the play-in game)?

While health care, jobs, the economy, and international affairs are certainly important, March is reserved for basketball in many voters' minds. Candidates, let's see those brackets!

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Sunday, March 14, 2010 - 10:23:13 PM

TOLBERT: DOES STATE BUDGET NEED A DIET?

Weekly Stephens Media columnist Jason Tolbert looks at a report brought forward a few weeks ago from the Arkansas Chapter of Americans for Prosperity.

The report makes hay of Arkansas' state government growth during the past decade and challenges policymakers to tighten the belt, or in short, go on a diet.

It's a theme we're going to see a lot of this election year as politicians rail against expanding government programs and employment. We touched on the subject in a special report on Friday, which you can read here.

Tolbert's take is at this link.

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Friday, March 12, 2010 - 3:59:49 PM

LET THE UNION ADS BEGIN

You didn't really think the Lincoln v. Halter Democratic Senate primary would be a campaign without attack ads and distortions of each others' records did you?

Today, a national liberal/progressive blog showcased what appears to be the first union-funded independent expenditure ad regarding Sen. Blanche Lincoln since Lt. Gov. Bill Halter jumped in the race.

The ad, which you can view here, says that Lincoln sided with corporate interests instead of Arkansas workers. It also accuses Lincoln of being pro-credit card company and criticizes her vote on the TARP bank bailout bill in 2008.

First, the ad is funded by Arkansans for Change, which Lincoln campaign manager Steve Patterson says is a group who lists "a union organizer from Texas who recently moved to Arkansas as one of its principal officers."

"Typically, Bill doesn't have the courage to attack Senator Lincoln under his own name," Patterson said. "He allows a front group formed a few days ago by national labor unions to do his dirty work. When the ad states that Senator Lincoln is 'not for us,' it is true that Senator Lincoln answers to Arkansas, not to the national labor unions."

Secondly, the ad draws rebuke from the Lincoln campaign for at least two alleged inaccuracies. Patterson countered that Lincoln has a substantial voting record standing up to corporate interests. He said that Lincoln had voted to reduce corporate tax breaks or close corporate loopholes "at least 17 times" and provided voting sources.

He also said that Lincoln voted last year "to stop unfair rate increases and excessive fees by credit card banks" as part of the Credit Cardholders Bill of Rights.

Let's be real clear: when these ads come - and from wherever they come - rest assured they may be factual, but they won't share all the facts. There's no way that you can sum up a Senator's voting record or a Lt. Governor's accomplishments in 30 seconds.

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Friday, March 12, 2010 - 10:32:33 AM

THE ARKANSAS ELECTION LINE

Ever wonder why or how Washington, D.C. pundits like the Cook Political Report and CQ Politics rank Arkansas elections?

I'm proud to announce that Blake'sThinkTank.com, TolbertReport.com and TalkBusiness.net are collaborating to bring politicos a new way to gauge and debate the 2010 elections in Arkansas.

Our three groups have created The Arkansas Election Line, an analysis and rating system of key races that will dominate political headlines this year.

Next week, The Arkansas Election Line will rate all of the federal races and the following week we'll look at the statewide constitutional offices. We'll also be rolling out additional analyses of the most hotly contested State Senate and State House primaries during the next few weeks. This fall, we'll turn our attention to the general election races.

Does a race "Lean Democrat" or is it "Solid Republican"? Does a particular primary race favor a front-runner already? What factors do we see influencing these major races and why might it give a particular candidate an advantage?

These are a few of the questions that Jason Tolbert, Blake Rutherford and I will be probing. We've been debating the races internally, working our respective sources, and applying our individual analyses to determine what's playing out. Now, we're ready to offer our ratings and commentary to you.

So get ready for The Arkansas Election Line!

Next week's line-up:
Monday - U.S. Senate Race
Tuesday - 1st Congressional District
Wednesday - 2nd Congressional District
Thursday - 3rd Congressional District
Friday - 4th Congressional District

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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 10:57:42 PM

HALTER TREADS FAMILIAR WATERS AT PINE BLUFF TOWN HALL

Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who is challenging incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln in the May 18th Democratic primary, stayed with familiar themes in his first town hall meeting in Pine Bluff.

According to this report from our content partner, the Arkansas News Bureau, Halter showcased the scholarship lottery as an example of his efforts to battle special interests.

Halter held his first town hall meeting as a candidate for the U.S. Senate here in Jefferson County, which has the second highest volume of lottery ticket sales in the state. He spent as much time on extolling the scholarships the games will produce as he did on issues in Washington that affect his home state.

He did say he disagreed with incumbent Democrat Blanche Lincoln's opposition to a public option provision in health care reform legislation. He said he favors allowing individuals to decide if affordable government provided coverage is best for them.

You can read more on the forum at this link.

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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 9:02:50 PM

NEW ADDITION IN THE 2nd DISTRICT RACE

There's a new addition in the Republican primary for Arkansas' Second Congressional District and its not an Independent, Green Party candidate or write-in.

GOP candidate Tim Griffin welcomed a new baby boy into his family on Thursday.

Griffin's wife, Elizabeth, gave birth on Thursday to a 9 lbs. 1 oz. boy named John Timothy Griffin, Jr.

It is the Griffins second child; they also have a two-year old daughter.

Griffin will face Republican Scott Wallace in the May 18th GOP primary.

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Thursday, March 11, 2010 - 2:27:52 PM

BOLING CALLS FOR DEBATES IN THE 2nd (UPDATED)

The chiefs of staffs for Congress officeholders are pulling the same page out of the playbook.

Two days after former Marion Berry chief of staff Chad Causey called for a series of First District Democratic debates, former Vic Snyder chief of staff David Boling has called for the same in the Second District.

Boling proposed three debates in April and May, with the first focusing on the range of issues of important to the people in the district; the second focusing on national and homeland security issues; and the final debate focusing on jobs and the economy.

"The people of the Second District will be electing a new congressman in November and they deserve to know where each candidate stands on issues important to them," said Boling. "A series of debates will be a great chance for citizens to know which candidate has the ideas, experience and judgment to best represent them in Congress," he added.

Boling proposed that the debates be held at Philander Smith College in Little Rock, Arkansas State University-Beebe, and the University of Central Arkansas in Conway. He recommended that specific dates, moderators and formats should be negotiated between the candidates.

UPDATE: At least two other Democratic candidates for the 2nd District nomination say they're on board, pending the details.

House Speaker Robbie Wills told Talk Business, "I'd welcome the opportunity to visit with voters about the issues that are important to them." Wills said he had not seen the request for the debates and would want to work through campaign channels to ensure that they were structured fairly for everyone.

Contender John Adams issued a statement saying he welcomed the chance to share his ideas on issues important to central Arkansas, like health care and tax reform.

"I want all citizens to have an opportunity to talk to me and ask their questions," said Adams.

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