Friday, March 12, 2010 - 9:33:30 AM

The creep of government job growth - federal state and local - has been a battle cry for conservatives in the current election cycle.

The high jobless rate and efforts to curtail it through stimulus funds and tax incentives has had a mixed result.  To some, it has stemmed a higher unemployment rate, while others argue that the impact has not been worth the debt accumulated and the deficit spending incurred.

So what do the statistics provided by state and federal government tell us about government employment growth?

As we noted months ago, the increase in government jobs has been noticeable.  In part, they've risen through public school employment, which for some parts of Arkansas has been rapid.  Lake View certainly forced the state to spend more money on education, in turn, adding to the increased number of government employees.  There has been a sizable jump in public sector health jobs too, due to tobacco settlement funds as well as federal and private grant money during the last decade.

According to data compiled by the U.S. Department of Labor and distributed by the Arkansas Department of Workforce Services, government jobs in Arkansas
totaled 217,200 in January 2010, roughly 19% of the total non-farm payroll jobs in the state.

Of the 11 major categories of job classifications, government employment is a close  - and getting closer - second to jobs in the trade, transportation & utilities industries.  Those private sector jobs totaled 225,600 in number in January 2010, approximately 19.8% of the total non-farm payroll jobs in Arkansas.

In a year-over-year comparison of those two job classifications - government and trade, transportation & utilities - there is a tale of two trends.  Government jobs have grown by 3,000 (2,700 at the state level) in the twelve-month period. Trade, transportation & utilities have lost 11,700.

Here is how the trends have played out during a two-year and five-year period.



FYI, government employment surpassed manufacturing workers, which totaled 156,600 in January 2010, well over three years ago.

Greg Kaza, economist with the Arkansas Policy Foundation, developed a report on this topic in February.  The analysis notes that "government will emerge as Arkansas' largest labor market sector this decade if two long-term employment trends continue to advance."

Those trends are continued state government growth and sub-par private sector expansion.  Kaza's report suggests that a "jobless recovery" could signal "government" as the largest labor market in Arkansas before 2012.

As candidates running for office this year tell you they're worried about the growth in government spending and the reliance on government to create jobs, they'll have proof in the numbers from the very entity they're railing against.  They'll also be faced with another dilemma - what to do about it.

Jobs lost in government could ratchet up the unemployment rate in the state, which will give a new batch of politicians another reason to condemn public policy.

RECOMMENDED READING:
Greg Kaza with the Arkansas Policy Foundation has produced a study and analysis on this trend, which you can read at this link.

There is additional commentary on employment trends from Dr. Michael Pakko, economist at UALR's Institute for Economic Advancement.  His useful blog, www.arkansaseconomist.com, should be one of your regular stops for insight.

Send Comments | Link