ROBY BROCK: TALK POLITICS

Roby Brock
Updated: 9/3/2006

We’re constantly doing our best to bring you the most comprehensive business and political coverage in Arkansas. This fall is no exception. Over the next 10 weeks, we’ll bring you a recurring series called “Talk Politics” sponsored by our friends at the Electric Cooperatives of Arkansas. “Talk Politics” will focus on our exclusive Constituent Dynamics polls, analysis with John Brummett of the Arkansas News Bureau, and profiles of the major party candidates for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General.

Constituent Dynamics Poll (9/3/06):

Ballot Question #1, which would allow for $250 million in bonds for Arkansas colleges and universities to invest in technology and facilities. 31% would vote yes today; 40% would vote no. 29% say they are undecided.

Proposed Constitutional Amendment #1, which would allow for charity bingo and raffles. An even split. 40% say they would vote yes. 40% say they would vote no. 20% remain undecided.

In the race for Attorney General, Democrat Dustin McDaniel leads Republican Gunner Delay 51% to 37%. 12% are undecided in this race.

For Lt. Governor, Democrat Bill Halter leads Republican Jim Holt 44% to 40%. 16% are undecided as this juncture.

And, in the race for Governor - Democrat Mike Beebe leads Republican Asa Hutchinson 48% to 34%. Green Party candidate Jim Lendall registered at 1%. And Independent Rod Bryan was a no show statistically at 0%. Undecided voters in the race for Governor stand at 17%.

About our Constituent Dynamics poll:

Constituent Dynamics polled 1,004 likely Arkansas voters over the course of three nights this past Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday evening, August 29-31. Here’s a breakdown of the composite of our voter sample:

Female/Male: 51% to 49%

Our age groups break down as follows: 27% between the ages of 18 & 44; 44% ages 45-64; 15% 65-74; and 14% 75+.

Party affiliation: 30% of our 1,004 likely voters declared themselves Republican. 40% say they are Democrats and 30% claim they are Independents.

By race, 79% of our likely voters were white. 15% African-American and 6% claimed a different racial background.

By congressional district, our poll is weighted as follows: 24% of these numbers are from the 1st Congressional District; 26% from the 2nd district. 25% from the 3rd district and 25% from the 4th district.

Because of our large sample size, Constituent Dynamics predicts the margin of error in this poll at +/- 3.09%.

Note: We also asked the questions in random order so as to mix up which names were asked first, either Republican or Democrat. And, we included the titles of each candidate, if they had one - such as State Senator Jim Holt or Attorney General Mike Beebe - because that is how they will appear on the ballot to the voter.

• To read a copy of the head-to-head match-ups, click here.
• To read a copy of the results with cross-tabs, click here.
• To read a copy of the instrument survey, click here.
• To read a breakdown of our poll methodology from Constituent Dynamics lead pollster, Dr. Chris Bushnell, click here.
• If you want to read more about Constituent Dynamics, click here.