ROBY BROCK: TALK POLITICS

Roby Brock
Updated: 10/1/2006

It is the second installation of our Constituent Dynamics poll. Who is ahead in the race for Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General? How have the races changed since our first poll one month ago? Here’s the breakout:

Constituent Dynamics Poll (10/1/06):

Ballot Question #1, which would allow for $250 million in bonds for Arkansas colleges and universities to invest in technology and facilities. 47% would vote yes today; 33% would vote no. 20% say they are undecided.

One month ago, Ballot Question #1 recorded a 31% approval rating, while 40% said they would vote no. 29% were undecided.

Proposed Constitutional Amendment #1, which would allow for charity bingo and raffles. 52% say they would vote for the amendment today, 30% say they oppose the measure. 18% are undecided.

In our first Constituent Dynamics poll, this amendment polled an even split. 40% say they would vote yes. 40% say they would vote no. 20% remain undecided.

In the race for Attorney General, Democrat Dustin McDaniel now leads Republican Gunner Delay 55% to 32%. 13% are undecided in this race. On Labor Day, McDaniel had a 14-point lead over DeLay, 51% to 37% with 12% undecided.

For Lt. Governor, Democrat Bill Halter leads Republican Jim Holt 45% to 41%. 14% are undecided as this juncture. One month ago, Halter led Holt 44% to 40% with 16% undecided.

In the race for Governor, Democrat Mike Beebe has topped 50% in our poll, but Republican Asa Hutchinson has closed a 14-point gap to 11 points. Beebe leads Hutchinson 51% to 40%. Green Party candidate Jim Lendall and Independent Rod Bryan polled 2% apiece. 5% of our likely voter sample remains undecided.

In our first poll, Beebe led Hutchinson 48% to 34%. Lendall registered at 1% and Bryan was a no show statistically at 0%. Undecided voters in the race for Governor stood at 17% one month ago.

About our Constituent Dynamics poll:

Constituent Dynamics polled 1,002 likely Arkansas voters over the course of three nights this past Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday evening, September 25-28. Here’s a breakdown of the composite of our voter sample:

Female/Male: 51% to 49%

Our age groups break down as follows: 27% between the ages of 18 & 44; 44% ages 45-64; 15% 65-74; and 14% 75+.

Party affiliation: 30% of our 1,002 likely voters declared themselves Republican. 40% say they are Democrats and 30% claim they are Independents.

By race, 79% of our likely voters were white. 15% African-American and 6% claimed a different racial background.

By congressional district, our poll is weighted as follows: 24% of these numbers are from the 1st Congressional District; 26% from the 2nd district; 25% from the 3rd district; and 25% from the 4th district.

Because of our large sample size, Constituent Dynamics predicts the margin of error in this poll at +/- 3.09%.

Note: We also asked the questions in random order so as to mix up which names were asked first, either Republican or Democrat. And, we included the titles of each candidate, if they had one - such as State Senator Jim Holt or Attorney General Mike Beebe - because that is how they will appear on the ballot to the voter.

• To read a copy of the head-to-head match-ups, click here.
• To read a copy of the results with cross-tabs, click here.
• To read a copy of the instrument survey, click here.
• To read a breakdown of our poll methodology from Constituent Dynamics lead pollster, Dr. Chris Bushnell, click here.
• If you want to read more about Constituent Dynamics, click here.
• For the results from our previous poll released on 9/3/06, click here.