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Our third and final Constituent Dynamics poll indicates solid leads for Democrats Mike Beebe and Dustin McDaniel, but the biggest movement shows Democrat Bill Halter opening up a lead on Republican Jim Holt in the race for Lt. Governor.
In our two previous polls, Halter led Holt by four points. Today, Halter has extended that lead to 50%-39% with 11% undecided.
Our final Constituent Dynamics poll
surveyed 999 likely Arkansas voters. The poll was conducted on October 16-18 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Democrat Mike Beebe leads Republican Asa Hutchinson 52%-39% in the race for Governor. Green Party candidate Jim Lendall and Independent Rod Bryan are polling 2% each. 5% remain undecided. These numbers are largely unchanged from our last Constituent Dynamics poll despite weeks of paid media and the last of three debates between the two major party candidates for Governor.
In the Attorney General's race, Democrat Dustin McDaniel continues his advantage over Republican Gunner DeLay 56% to 35% with 9% undecided.
Ballot Question #1, which would allow for $250 million in bonds for Arkansas colleges and universities to invest in technology and facilities, appears poised to pass. 52% would vote yes today; 26% would vote no. 22% say they are undecided.
Proposed Constitutional Amendment #1, which would allow for charity bingo and raffles, is also enjoying solid support. 60% say they would vote for the amendment today, 24% say they oppose the measure. 16% are undecided.
About our Constituent Dynamics poll:
Constituent Dynamics polled 999 likely Arkansas voters over the course of three nights this past Monday-Thursday evenings, October 16-18, 2006. Here’s a breakdown of the composite of our voter sample:
Female/Male: 51% to 49%
Our age groups break down as follows: 27% between the ages of 18 & 44; 44% ages 45-64; 15% 65-74; and 14% 75+.
Party affiliation: 30% of our 999 likely voters declared themselves Republican. 40% say they are Democrats and 30% claim they are Independents.
By race, 79% of our likely voters were white. 15% African-American and 6% claimed a different racial background.
By congressional district, our poll is weighted as follows: 24% of these numbers are from the 1st Congressional District; 26% from the 2nd district; 25% from the 3rd district; and 25% from the 4th district.
Because of our large sample size, Constituent Dynamics predicts the margin of error in this poll at +/- 3.1%.
Note: We also asked the questions in random order so as to mix up which names were asked first, either Republican or Democrat. And, we included the titles of each candidate, if they had one - such as State Senator Jim Holt or Attorney General Mike Beebe - because that is how they will appear on the ballot to the voter.
• To read a copy of the head-to-head match-ups, click here.
• To read a copy of the results with cross-tabs, click here.
• To read a copy of the instrument survey, click here.
• To read a breakdown of our poll methodology from Constituent Dynamics lead pollster, Dr. Chris Bushnell, click here.
• If you want to read more about Constituent Dynamics, click here.
• For the results from our previous poll released on 9/3/06, click here.
• For the results from our previous poll released on 10/1/06, click here.
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